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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.