Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
