‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As military actions on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, media reports say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities insists there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say supplies are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative claims exploitative practices.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.